An aim at tennis insight.

  • Indian Wells 2026: Mid-Draw Madness

    There have been a bunch of stories coming out of tennis paradise this week, so I’ll talk about a selection of them.

    Let’s start with Fonseca. He didn’t go super deep in the draw but this is certainly one of his most impressive tournaments so far. It was a much needed performance from him, because I feel like he’s at an inflection point in his career. In 2024, he broke onto the scene as a 17 year old prodigy with unlimited potential. Few knew of him, except for a dedicated Brazilian army that has been a constant at every match of his (and every social media post). As he began to put up results, his hype grew further. Eventually he was well known in the tennis world as perhaps a future member of a “Big 3” with Alcaraz and Sinner. With such notoriety comes plenty of scrutiny, and he has had his share of doubters. Over the last year, his results have varied and he hasn’t made a deep run in a major tournament. Obviously he’s still super young, but guys like Alcaraz have set an unreasonably high standard. This week for him probably won’t silence the skeptics, but in my mind it should. In his second round, Fonseca defeated Khachanov in a 3-setter that tested his mental fortitude. I’ve seen him play through high pressure situations before, but he managed to come back from losing the first set against a veteran player who also hits the crap out of the ball. He was actually on the cusp of defeat in the second set tiebreaker, edging out the Russian 9-7. That takes heart. Against Tommy Paul, Fonseca displayed tremendous power on both ground stroke sides and his first serves consistently landed in the mid-130s. To top it off, his control and shot selection felt far more mature than the carefree slap shot Joao of two years ago. It may have been the highest quality match I’ve seen him play. But that brought him to the doorstep of Mr. Sinner in the Round of 16, who refused to take it easy on the rookie. I was actually surprised with how well the Brazilian fared… 6-7 6-7. He seemed to match, and often surpass, the power that Sinner so effortlessly generates. Jannik had to save 3 set points in the first set tiebreaker. Once again, Joao displayed controlled, confident power that I think will take him far in the remainder of the season. He should also be encouraged by the fact that Sinner dismantled Learner Tien, his rising star rival, with a 6-1 6-2 victory today.

    Now, moving onto Novak Djokovic and Jack Draper. Their Round of 16 was probably the best 3-set match of the year thus far. It was an absolutely electric way for Jack to secure his first win against the GOAT. I feel far more comfortable calling Novak the GOAT these days. As a Federer fan, it has always pained me to see Djokovic thrive. But it’s simply undeniable that what he has accomplished over the span of his more than two-decade career is historic. And the level that he continues to display at the ancient age of 38 is hard to believe. I’ll continue to reiterate this in future writings. There was one point in the third set that sort acted as a paradox. A crazy 26 shot rally that had Djokovic take on four full sprints to retrieve lobs/drop shots and then win the point with delicate touch. The best point of the year so far. But while Novak proved to the tennis fandom that he can still make it to any ball(s), that point completely fried his lungs. When he fell to the ground after winning you could see his chest beating profusely. He was exhausted and kept hunching over after many of the subsequent points. His exhaustion led to Draper breaking his serve soon after. It wasn’t until the end of the set that he regained his stamina, and was able to capitalize on a game that Draper played sloppily while serving for the set at 5-4. The final tiebreak was exciting, with more long points. Jack Draper had a lot of pressure on his shoulders as the defending champion. On top of that he has been out with injury for much of the past year and hasn’t been able to build up his ATP points – as loss in this match would have sent his ranking down from 14 to 28. But the young Brit still managed to prevail over one of his childhood heroes.

    There was a cost to the physicality of that match though, as Jack Draper faced the human backboard Medvedev today and fell short 1-6 5-7 after showing up with a fraction of his explosiveness and possibly some hinderance from his lingering arm injury. Speaking of hinderance, there was a point in the late second set where Draper thought a ball was out and he slightly lifted his arms in disbelief before continuing the point with Meddy. After about 5 more shots Meddy dumped a backhand into the net and immediately approached the chair asking for a hinderance review due to Draper’s expression. Per the rulebook, Medvedev was right and he got the point. The umpire stated that because Draper strayed from his normal course of movements, which was noticed by Medvedev, it could be considered hinderance. Draper argued that it obviously didn’t hinder Medvedev enough because he continued the point and didn’t miss until multiple shots later. I think that while the call was technically sound, Medvedev certainly played the sleazy lawyer in this scenario. I’ll give it to him, he used the rules to his advantage. But the rules should change and VAR needs to be requested immediately by a player, similar to a challenge. Otherwise they have the advantage of playing the rest of the point freely, knowing that they can get bailed out if they lose it. The crowd definitely didn’t like the call and booed Medvedev like crazy until the match was over – but Draper had already given up after that point. At the handshake they had a conversation about it. Jack showed some class and said he wasn’t mad with Daniil, but he doesn’t think the movement distracted him enough. Meddy said he felt bad about it. All in all, I don’t think Draper had the energy to continue this tournament anyways.

    Now, back to our regularly scheduled Alcaraz vs Sinner final?

    I’ll just say that Alcaraz unplayable against Norrie tonight. He also hit a topspin backhand lob winner out of the air against Ruud yesterday – I’ve never seen that before.

  • Alcaraz Solidified Top 10 All Time

    Carlos Alcaraz won the 2026 Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic to become the youngest to ever complete a career grand slam at 22. When you look at the entire history of tennis, he just beat an 88 year record that has been held by Don Budge since 1938. In the Open Era, this bests Rafa Nadal by nearly 2 years and there’s no one even close behind Nadal. Beating Rafa, the greatest tennis prodigy ever (formerly?), for a “youngest to ever do X” accolade is a really really big deal.

    Pretty amazing that Carlos had never made it past the quarterfinals in Australia and decided to skip the long climb that we’ve seen with other legends trying to complete the career slam. It took Federer years to finally win the French Open, albeit his window for a Rafaless final over two decades was extremely tight. Also amazing that Carlos won this tournament with the recent shake up of his coaching box. All the credit still goes to Juan Carlos Ferrero for laying the foundation for what Carlos is today.

    How lucky are we as tennis fans that our Big 3 hangover has been cured so quickly by this guy? His game is undeniable. His talent is off the charts. He plays with a vigor that pulls the audience in while having the time of his life. I believe he’s now the greatest tennis prodigy ever – he also has become the youngest to reach 7 grand slams, surpassing Borg by 5 months. Incredibly, he is the only male player to ever win each slam in his first finals appearance. These aren’t obscure records, they are pretty clearly era-defining.

    Tactically, Djokovic arrived with the right game plan. At his age the best chance he will have to win a 5 set match is the dial up his risk-taking. This is what Novak/Roger/Rafa forced most other players to due throughout their reign – decreasing margins. He went bigger in this match, but he wasn’t as clutch. Against Sinner in the semifinal, he faced 18(!) break point opportunities and saved 16 of them. Sinner could only convert 2. Against Carlos he faced 16 break points and saved just 11 of them. Carlos converted ~30% of his break point chances versus Sinner’s ~10%. For Novak, this is the difference between a 5 set victory and a 4 set loss. Let’s not forget that he was 10-0 in Australian Open finals before this match. Unbelievable.

    Carlos has grown a lot as a player over the last few years. In the past, a Djokovic 6-2 result in the first set would have rattled him. In a grand slam final, anyone who faces a man with 24 grand slam titles will have to overcome a mountain of doubt. This year, its different for Carlos. He came into that final knowing that his career trajectory is greater than anyone in history – that’s quite the confidence boost. In the game to win the title (6-5 in the fifth), he locked down Djokovic as Djokovic has done to everyone else for the past 15 years.

    Let me finish with one last point to keep in mind, to put some emphasis on the career slam record. Hard court may very well be Alcaraz’s worst surface. It’s pretty clear that Sinner is a hard court dominator. Rafa was obviously the king of clay. Federer was a maestro on the grass. Novak, as the objective greatest ever, was also dominant on all surfaces but not at such a young age. I think there has already been a collective groan on the ATP tour as the players have witnessed the rise of Alcaraz/Sinner, but now that groan has become much louder. Carlos isn’t going anywhere! Neither is Sinner.

    Number of Slams:

    Carlos Alcaraz – 7

    John McEnroe – 7

    Mats Wilander – 7

    Boris Becker – 6

    Stefan Edberg – 6

  • Greatest AO Semi-final Day Ever?

    It’s certainly up there. Where do I even begin? How about I start with the undeniable GOAT, Novak Djokovic, who managed to dethrone Sinner from his Australian dominance in a classic 5 set victory. I’m a Federer fan at heart, but what Novak continues to achieve on a tennis court is nothing short of legendary. It doesn’t matter that he had a lucky draw with the withdrawal of Jakub Mensik and the retirement of Lorenzo Musetti. Fitness level was not the determining factor of this match.

    There is a 14 year age gap between he and Sinner. At 38 years old (young in normal terms, ancient in tennis years) he managed to take down a future all-time great who is in the prime of his career. He doesn’t do this by hitting through them. As we’ve seen over his long and storied career, he wins these Grand Slam matches through superior strategy. His management of points and games in this match are what maintained his physical form. He knows which games are critical – if he was ahead a break in a set, he would spend less energy fighting for another break and fully focus on holding serve. And that meant knowing when to go after a ball or extend a rally, and when not to. If he could win short points, he knew he would have a shot. As Christopher Eubanks put it – he isn’t tanking, it’s a business decision.

    Fortunately for Novak, his first serve held up in very crucial moments. At times, he would walk up for a first serve and wait for fan noise to get too loud. Then, he’d take a step back and regain his composure. This is fully permitted by the rules. Novak has always done this, and it’s in these moments when his experience shines through. At this point in his career he won’t dominate the top players in a best of 5 match. He wins by the finest margins. Last night, his ability to find the mental edge over Sinner has carried him through to the finals to compete for his 11th Australian Open title. Do not expect him to retire this year! By the way… Sinner has never won a match that has gone beyond 3 hours and 45 minutes.

    Now for Alcaraz vs Zverev. You have to feel for Alex… Carlos is just too good. Let’s start with the medical timeout – perhaps another form of match management employed by Alcaraz. I think the general consensus is that he was cramping. Carlos mentioned in his press conference that he believed it to be an isolated issue with an abductor and that he had not felt the full body effects of cramping when he called his physio to evaluate. The physio then recommended a medical timeout, with Carlos up 2 sets and Alex serving for the third. Zverev certainly took issue with the medical timeout, Alcaraz even drank pickle juice during it. The rules are murky – you aren’t technically supposed to receive a full evaluation because cramping is not an injury. But this physio does not work for Alcaraz, he is an unbiased employee of the tournament. If Alcaraz tells him his groin hurts, he’s going to believe it. 99% of players would do the same thing if they were in Carlos’ shoes, yet Zverev had the right to be frustrated. He let everyone know it, and still managed to push the match to a 5th.

    In the 5th set, Alcaraz dug extremely deep as we have seen him do many times before on the biggest stages of the sport. Zverev has choked while serving for the match before (US Open vs Thiem), but this wasn’t really a choke. His legs were gone, affecting his serve, and the serve is what Zverev relies on more than anyone else at the top. But Carlos is a wizard, he earned this match. His displayed his ability to push his mind and body to their respective limits, separating any inklings of doubt from his consciousness. This allowed him to hit shots freely and close out the match.

    Alcaraz is more motivated now than he has ever been to win at the Australian Open, for the chance to become the youngest to ever complete the career slam. At the same time, Novak will be competing for his 25th Grand Slam. I really, really hope that the match lives up to the historical significance behind it. I believe that it will, and Alcaraz will make history once again.

  • Australian Open 2026

    First post! Catching up mid-tournament

    I’m starting in the middle of the Australian Open, so there have been a number of storylines already. The biggest one on my mind is the controversy surrounding wearable devices. Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Aryna Sabalenka were all asked to remove their Whoop fitness trackers moments before they began their respective matches. I find it odd that the tournament has this ban still in place, especially considering that Whoops are approved by the International Tennis Federation, meaning they are allowed at ATP and WTA events (they are even an official partner of the WTA!). Remember that the grand slams are separate from the tours, so they play by a separate set of rules. It’s not an outright ban (since the slams use ITF rules), though the players have to get pre-approval and abide by strict guidelines.

    The real issue is that the device can transmit data in real time to a coaching box while it is worn, and officials worry that it would provide an advantage to a player wearing one if their opponent is not. While coaching is now permitted during a match, having constant access to data about a player’s physical output is a gray area. I say let them have it.

    Another big topic this year is the heat – Melbourne is dealing with record high temperatures and unfortunately the players have to deal with it. A few days ago we saw Jannik Sinner struggle against Eliot Spizzirri with the heat index reaching an extreme. He was down in the match and they suspended play, which many considered a bailout. Yes the break certainly helped Sinner recover and bounce back to win the match, but it was a fair decision to pause. It was truly scorching hot and they paused all of the matches happening at the time. Spizzirri happened to be at a better fitness level in that moment, but it doesn’t mean he deserved to win the match if the heat was at dangerous levels for the players. Even the ball kids were passing out. It really does suck for Spizz, but he had a long way to go in that match anyways. I saw him beat Fonseca at the US Open court 5 back in 2024, and his fitness is truly incredible. The guy can grind through long, painful points in the heat.

    As I continue to work on this blog I’ll start to develop more structure, but for now it’s just a brain dump.

    I would like to include a mid-way prediction here though – I have a feeling Alcaraz will become the youngest to ever complete the career grand slam this week. His motivation is high and he’s coming off a strong world no. 1 finish in 2025. Sinner did look very strong against Darderi yesterday, and Alcaraz has a tough matchup against De Minaur today. But if he can get through the demon I think that puts him in a good spot to take it. Sinner has dominated hard courts these past few years and Carlos wants to change that, he likely focused on nothing else in the off season.

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